06-26-08 by dugan
It’s hard to do more than sputter over oil hitting $140 a barrel
today, so let’s go for laughs. For instance, the federal Energy
Information Administration’s 2008 predictions about oil.
The EIA last year firmly predicted that 2008 crude oil prices would
average $58 a barrel. Where do they buy these predictions, at Mabel’s
used crystal-ball shop?
Now, in an "updated" long-range report, the EIA
is predicting that oil will cost $68 a barrel in 2016, and $113 a
barrel in 2030, even though worldwide consumption will rise to 150% of
today’s use. Even though there will be only the tiniest increase in
renewable energy. Even assuming government won’t lift a finger to
regulate or oversee oil markets.
The EIA has been just as far off
base in predicting gasoline prices, and in its shorter-term predictions
of consumption, both in the U.S. and worldwide. It wouldn’t be worth
worrying about if U.S. government policy weren’t based on such
predictions. After all, if oil really isn’t going to be expensive in 8
years or 22 years, why bother to get markets under control, regulate
refineries or spend the real money needed to develop sun, wind and
biomass energy? It’s the ultimate cop-out.