Pacific Ethanol slams conventional wisdom in indirect land-use change at California Low Carbon hearings
Tom Koelher’s excellent presentation at the CARB hearings is downloadable from biofuelsdigest.com
In California, Tom Koehler of Pacific Ethanol asked incisive questions
at California Air Resources Board hearings on the proposed California
Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The proposed standard includes an indirect
land-use change component that biofuels supporters say is based on
thin, untested science.
Koehlers presentation, which focuses on Indirect Land Use Change and is
downloadable here, is perhaps the most cogent short examination of the
ILUC issue from a biofuels producers perspective, and asks:
Is conventional wisdom correct?
CW on food versus fuel has proven to be wrong. Current biofuel
production volumes are not driving up food prices; oil prices drive
food prices.
Is oethe Science settled?
Science is generating hypotheses, testing them against the available data and Choosing those that best fit the data.
Can ILUC models (hypotheses) fit the historical data?
Can they hindcast or backcast previous trends in agriculture?
Will ILUC penalties slow deforestation?
How will penalizing U.S. biofuels producers change the decisions made by illegal timber operations in the Third World?
Yield, yield & yield
Do ILUC models correctly estimate potential increases in global
agricultural yield and productivity e.g. 700% corn yield increases in
Africa?
Do they account for new high yielding biomass feedstocks e.g. switchgrass or miscanthus?
Are they politically feasible?
Will U.S. producers be economically responsible for foreign land owners
use decisions? Perhaps all land use change is direct? By holding
governments and land owners directly responsible, can we begin to
define a more predictable, transparensequestration practices?
In a related development at the California CARB hearings, it was
revealed that the California Energy Commissions Vice-Chair and
Presiding member, James Boyd, is married to the COO and Chief of Staff
of the Western States Petroleum
Association, an oil industry trade organization. Consumer Watchdog has
protested Boyds presence in matters involving the oil industry.
Meanwhile, Neil Koehler said that the ethanol industry will recover
from its current troubles, but speculation is growing that a Pacific
Ethanol bankruptcy is imminent and the company may not survive to see
the era of advanced biofuels, and that oil companies are swooping in
and picking up ethanol plants on the cheap.